Top ten topics of concern to investors in 2003

2022-09-21
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The top ten topics of concern for investors in 2003

the top ten topics of concern for investors in 2003

whether good or bad, 2002 has passed, but many topics related to global economic development will continue to develop in the new year, which is worth investors' in-depth understanding and mastery. The financial times pointed out that the top ten topics of concern to investors this year will include: whether Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will collapse, the prospects of global stock markets, whether emerging markets will repeat the financial crisis, whether the dollar will depreciate significantly, whether the United States will continue to cut interest rates, and whether ICT spending will rebound

the following is the specific analysis and prediction of these ten topics: first, will Saddam fall

prediction: Yes. Even if it is not in spring, it may be in autumn. There is a crisis in attacking Iraq, especially if Saddam and his loyalists fight in a desperate battle, they are likely to use biological and chemical weapons. But what is certain is that the United States has the ability and willingness to defeat Saddam Hussein

second, will the global stock market turn higher or continue to decline

it is predicted that if there is no skin, there will be no hair. If the world economy falters, the profits of the global stock market are certainly not optimistic. U.S.A "We plan to confirm that the share price of one theme is still at a record high in each session in the future, which means that the market will still be revised downward. What direction the U.S. stock market is going, other markets will follow. It is estimated that the closing level of the world's major stock market indexes this year will be similar or even lower than that of last year, when Ronghui adopted the internationally popular rate control system.

third, will there be a financial crisis?

if there is a financial crisis, it will Will the US dollar collapse in emerging markets that are still overly dependent on bank financing and foreign currency borrowings

the current account deficit of the United States is about 5% of GDP, and the net external debt is about 25% of GDP, which will rise to at least 50% in five years. The two forces that offset the weakening of the US dollar - the slowdown of US private capital outflows and the massive inflow of foreign capital - seem to be unsustainable. Such a situation cannot last forever

once the trend reverses, the dollar will fall. As other countries cannot absorb a large number of U.S. exports quickly, the downward trend of the dollar will be relatively long. At present, the trade weighted exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen by 9% from its peak in February last year

therefore, there is at least a 1/5 chance that the US dollar will depreciate significantly this year, especially against the euro

v. will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again

if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, it is tantamount to admitting that it misjudged the economic trend. However, although the U.S. economy still shows a high degree of resilience, given the difficulties, such as the high share price, the imminent geopolitical storm, the high consumer debt, Germany and Japan are unable to absorb export products, the Federal Reserve is indeed likely to cut interest rates again

VI. will there be another corporate scandal

no, at least not in the United States. Although the competent authorities and law enforcement departments in the United States will continue to work hard to deal with the business executives and scandals that occurred in the east window incident last year, there have been no major business malpractice cases exposed in the United States for nearly six months, which shows that accountants, audit committees and business executives have tried their best to make amends. Unless it is really hopelessly corrupt or stupid, enterprises or individuals should have corrected all errors by now

VII. Will it expenditure recover

almost certainly not. The key to the expenditure of information technology is the profit of the enterprise department. In view of the fact that the sales of some major projects have not yet shown signs of strong recovery, enterprises can only save costs if they want to increase profits, such as reducing technology budgets. It is estimated that the growth rate of enterprises' it expenditure this year is only 2% to 3%

the reason why enterprises dare to cut budgets is that there are no heavyweight scientific and technological products on the market at present. Deflation is the most serious problem. Although the sales volume of information technology products may increase, the final income may still fall after the price continues to fall

VIII. Will Brazil have a debt repayment crisis

no, but this does not mean that Brazil's new government can rest easy. President Lula da Silva decided to return to the traditional economic policy. At the same time, he took office at a time when Brazil's external debt was relatively stable, and he was able to avoid an immediate crisis

however, in the long run, Brazil must still carry out structural reforms, such as the amendment of the guaranteed public sector pension system. If it fails to implement structural reforms, Brazil will also face external pressure before the end of this year

IX. how to judge that the global economy has stopped falling

it can't just look at GDP, because the real impact can only be seen from the global trade data. The global trade volume declined by 1.5% in 2001, the first negative growth since 1982, and it is estimated that it only increased by 1% last year. To see any signs of rejuvenation, the trade growth rate should return to a relatively stable level, such as 4% to 5%. A rebound in trade is expected to drive weak industrial production in many countries

the second key indicator is the unemployment rate. Unemployment is still rising in most parts of Europe and the United States. Employment is closely related to consumer confidence. However, the most sure sign that the global economy has stopped falling is the action of central banks to raise interest rates. However, except for the UK, the seven major industrial countries may not raise interest rates until 2004

10. 3. Can the Doha round of Global trade negotiations be carried out smoothly before the bellows ring stiffness testing machine starts

the progress of relevant trade negotiations is very difficult. The failure to reach an agreement on developing countries' access to medicine and special medical care before the deadline in December last year has cast a shadow of delay or destruction on the Doha round. Poor countries regard these two issues as the standard of sincerity of rich countries. In addition, there are also considerable differences in the positions of governments on the key issue of Agricultural Liberalization

unless differences can be resolved in the coming months, the World Trade Organization meeting held in Mexico in September this year will also have a bumpy future. The Doha round of trade negotiations, which was originally expected to be completed in early 2005, seems increasingly unrealistic

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